Financial planners need to use assumptions about the future to paint a realistic picture for their clients. Since we don’t have a crystal ball, most rely on the projection and assumption guidelines put forward annually by FP Canada.

These assumptions include estimates about inflation, investment returns, life expectancy, wage growth, borrowing costs, etc. Note that these assumptions are meant to approximate an average over 10+ years. Forecasting any economic variable over a short period of time is pretty much impossible, but while the short-term may be volatile (hello 2020s), long-term trends are a bit easier to predict.

Take inflation. Sure, in the past two years we have experienced higher than normal inflation. It might be tempting, then, to increase the inflation expectations in your plan to match the present (or near past) environment. But that would be a mistake for two reasons:

1. Nearly every central bank in the world is working to get inflation back down to a steady and predictable 2%. Canada is also an aging, developed, slower growth economy that lends itself to lower interest rates and lower inflation over time. Furthermore, in looking at two-year rolling averages over the past 60 years, the inflation rate was at 3% or lower nearly 75% of the time. 
2. Inflation affects other variables. Increasing the inflation rate in your retirement plan also means that your CPP and OAS benefits will increase at the same rate. Same for those with defined benefit pension plans that offer inflation protection. Higher inflation would also lead to sustained higher interest rates, which increase the rate of return for assets like cash, bonds, and equities. In summary, we can’t change one assumption in isolation.

FP Canada assumes that inflation will average 2.1% annually over the long-term, and I don’t have any reason to disagree.

This article explores other retirement assumptions used for financial planning projections and explains the rationale behind them. I’ll also share some common objections or misperceptions that I hear from clients about some of these variables.

Life Expectancy

FP Canada suggests using a projection period for clients where the probability of outliving their capital is no more than 25%. If we assume the average life expectancy is about 81 years for Canadian men and 85 years for Canadian women, then by definition half of men and women will live longer than the average. 

Then there’s your probability of survival if you’ve already reached a certain age. For example, a 60-year old male has a 25% chance of living to age 94 and a 50% chance of living to age 89.

That’s why I run my planning projections to age 95 as a default (unless there are specific health or genetic reasons to move that age up or down). I want to stress-test your plan to make sure that you have enough resources to last a long and healthy retirement.

And, no, it’s not sensible to change your otherwise normal life expectancy to 75 in order to retire earlier and spend more money. Taking up smoking (or sky diving) is not a sound financial plan.

Investment Returns

I don’t ascribe to the Dave Ramsey approach to investment returns – thinking you can earn market returns of 12% per year indefinitely. FP Canada offers a more realistic estimate of between 6.2% to 7.4% per year before fees.

If we assume a globally diversified portfolio made up of 30% Canadian stocks, 62.5% US and International stocks, and 7.5% emerging markets stocks, we get a projected rate of return of about 6.5% before fees for an all-equity portfolio best represented by Vanguard’s VEQT.

FP Canada projects that aggregate bonds will return 3.2% annually (again, before fees). If we apply that to the classic balanced portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds (best represented by Vanguard’s VBAL) we get a projected rate of return of 5% before fees.

This closely aligns with the investment return assumptions I use for planning purposes. I assume 6.1% net of fee return for equities, 3.1% net of fee return for bonds, and a 4.9% net of fee return for a 60/40 balanced portfolio.

For cash, I assume 1.6% – or inflation minus 0.5%. The idea is you keep your savings in a high interest savings account to capture the best rate of return on cash that you can. It’s not in a chequing account or big bank savings account earning nothing, and it’s not stuffed under your mattress.

By the way, it should go without saying that these returns represent a long-term average rate of return. Investment returns can be incredibly volatile from one year to the next. But you don’t abandon a perfectly sensible and diversified portfolio after one bad year. Similarly, you don’t get excited and prepare your resignation letter early after one good year in the markets.

Wage Growth

Clients still in their working years are often puzzled when it comes to forecasting their expected wage growth. They typically don’t want to assume that their income will increase at all, let alone by the rate of inflation.

They’re even more puzzled when I tell them that the typical wage growth is inflation plus 1% (or 3.1% per year). That’s right, in normal times your wages will outpace inflation. That’s a fact.

I get it. I went through five years of wage freeze hell in the public sector. But when you account for cost of living adjustments and potential promotions or increases from job switching throughout your career, it’s not out of line to think that your wages can grow by 3.1% per year on average over the long term.

Still, try explaining to someone making $100,000 today that they’ll be making $215,000 in 25 years and they’ll stare at you in disbelief.

Spending in Retirement

Many people have no idea what they’ll spend in retirement. A helpful starting point is to determine what you’re spending in your final working years. Most of my clients want to maintain their existing standard of living, if not enhance it with some extra money for travel and hobbies.

We also may have heard that retirement spending keeps pace with inflation during the “go-go” phase of retirement, then reduces during the “slow-go” phase (inflation minus 1%), and and then levels off during the “no-go” phase (no more inflation adjustments).

While this sounds intuitive, I’m not a fan of this approach to retirement spending because I don’t want to arbitrarily impose spending cuts for my clients at age 75 and 85 (for example). I can also easily see spending on travel and hobbies being replaced by in-home nursing care and mobility aids as you age. 

For this reason, I keep spending increasing with inflation to age 95 when possible.

I also encourage clients to think about one-time expenses that will likely occur throughout their retirement. The big four items include new vehicles, home renovations and repairs, financial gifts to kids, and bucket list travel and experiences. We weave these expenses into the plan as needed.

Housing in Retirement

A big question for homeowners is what to do with their paid-off home in retirement.

Sometimes, it’s painfully clear that the client will need to access their home equity by downsizing, selling and renting, or using a reverse mortgage.

More often, the client has enough resources to maintain their lifestyle without selling the home and so we assume they remain in their home (or home of equivalent value) for their lifetime. There’s no use trying to predict their health situation at 85 or 90 and the need to move into a retirement facility. The home is there and equity can be tapped if needed.

Still, if the goal is to maximize spending or “die with zero” then clients should consider the eventual sale of their home to add the proceeds to their savings and investments for consumption.

Final Thoughts

There are a lot of unknown variables that go into a financial plan. We need to use reasonable assumptions to help understand how you’ll use your financial resources over time to achieve your goals.

Assumptions should be conservative, but realistic. You won’t do yourself any favours expecting 12% returns on your investments. On the flip side, there’s no need to be pessimistic about the future and expect persistently higher than normal inflation, Great Depression-like returns, or low to no wage growth.

Finally, know that these are assumptions about what the world is going to look like in the future, but the world is surprising and unpredictable (hello 2020s). Check in on your plan and projections from time-to-time to make sure you’re still on track and course correct as needed.

The federal government uses the inflation data for the 12-month period between October 1 to September 30 to determine a number of figures for the following calendar year. September’s inflation rate was announced earlier this month, so we now have the entire data set needed to calculate the indexing rate for 2024, which gives us a new TFSA limit, OAS clawback threshold, tax brackets, and more.

Thanks to Aaron Hector for doing the math to give us these important details.

The indexing rate for 2024 will be 4.7%. That’s down from 6.3% in 2023. If you are receiving a federal pension, expect your benefits to increase by 4.7% as of January 2024.

Note that the indexing rate for CPP is based on a different calculation (inflation data for the 12-moth period between November 1 to October 31), so the rate may be different. Last year’s CPP increase was 6.5% based on 2022 inflation data.

The TFSA contribution limit will increase to $7,000 (up from $6,500 in 2023). This marks the second consecutive increase in the annual limit. The TFSA lifetime limit for those eligible since 2009 will be $95,000.

The OAS clawback threshold will increase to $90,997 (up from $86,912 in 2023). That means those collecting OAS can earn up to $90,997 in taxable income in 2024 without fear of having to repay their benefits.

A host of tax bracket thresholds will be updated for 2024:

The year’s maximum pensionable earnings (YMPE), which is the maximum salary amount on which you need to contribute to the Canada Pension Plan, is increasing to $68,500 (up from $66,600).

Budgeting nerds like me can use these figure to update their spreadsheets and forecasts for 2024.

If you were planning to max out your TFSA next year, make sure to budget $7,000 instead of $6,500.

Of note for me and my wife, we aim to keep our taxable income at the top of 30.5% marginal tax bracket so we can safely increase our income (the amount we pay ourselves from our small business) by 4-5% next year.

The one small silver lining of higher inflation over the past two years is that our tax brackets and a bunch of other important figures are also indexed to inflation.

This Week’s Recap:

Earlier this month I updated my article on how to crush your RRSP contributions next year. It’s a reminder for those who contribute significantly to their RRSPs to use the T1213 form to request to reduce tax deductions at the source.

Despite the current interest rate environment I still come across many people who are interested in real estate investing as a source of passive income. Reality check: There’s nothing passive about owning a rental property, and with rates where they are right now the odds of your property being cash flow positive are vanishingly small.

Remember, you can’t go back in time and replicate the returns that your parents, friends, co-workers experienced over the past decade or more. Your starting point is now, in this current environment of sky-high real estate prices and higher interest rates. Adjust your expectations accordingly.

Who in their right mind is thinking right now, you know what – a couple of income properties might just be the ticket to financial freedom?

— Boomer and Echo (@BoomerandEcho) October 23, 2023

Promo of the Week:

A reminder if you want to up your credit card rewards game for better travel experiences then you should really be using American Express cards to maximize your points.

Even better if you can use American Express’s referral program to “activate your player 2” (e.g. your partner) to earn points faster. That’s what my wife and I have been doing over the past few years.

We use Aeroplan for our flights and Marriott Bonvoy for our hotel rewards. The best way to accumulate Aeroplan miles and Bonvoy points is to collect American Express Membership rewards points and then transfer the points to those respective programs.

Here’s our credit card line-up to get you started:

• The American Express Platinum card – Earn up to 100,000 Membership Rewards points.
• The American Express Aeroplan Reserve card – Earn up to Aeroplan points.
• The American Express Cobalt card – Earn up to 30,000 Membership Rewards points and 5x points on food and drink (this is my main every day credit card).
• The Marriott Bonvoy American Express card – Earn up to 55,000 Marriott Bonvoy points and a free night certificate.

And, for small business owners, even more lucrative rewards await:

• The Business Platinum Card from American Express – Earn up to 120,000 Membership Rewards points.
• The Marriott Bonvoy Business American Express card – Earn up 55,000 Marriott Bonvoy points and a free night certificate.

Happy travels!

Weekend Reading:

Overwhelmed by all the negative news? Here’s why you might need financial therapy.

Certified Financial Planner Shaun Maslyk explores what financial freedom means in Canada.

Anita Bruinsma writes about personal finance hogwash – five phrases you need to stop feeling bad about:

“The truth is that most people should be using traditional methods for achieving financial stability. Yes, it’s boring, yes, it takes time and yes, it takes sacrifice and self-discipline, but wealth and financial stability don’t come free and easy.”

If you knew when you were going to die and the money you would leave, what would you do differently?

Rising rates, inflation, and housing affordability aren’t the only reason early retirement plans don’t pan out.

Michael James on Money shares what experts get wrong about the 4% rule.

What you can expect from the Canada Pension Plan and why it won’t run dry anytime soon.

Advice-only planner Jason Evans explains the danger of using the CPP breakeven calculation.

Speaking of CPP, here’s a really informative Q&A on Alberta’s attempt to form its own pension plan (APP):

(🧵). In light of the major debate happening in Alberta, I thought I would try to put together a FAQ on a CPP/APP. As always, the answers here do not contain legal advice or personal views.#ableg #CPP

— Timothy Huyer (@tim4hire) October 27, 2023

Beating the stock market isn’t easy. So why do many Canadian investors act like it is? (subs).

Finally, in his latest Charting Retirement post Fred Vettese asks if dementia risk is part of your retirement plan. Some sobering statistics for those over 85 years old.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

A few months ago I wrote about some changes I plan to make to our kids’ RESP portfolio. We’ve used TD’s e-Series funds for this account, but will switch to an ETF portfolio using Justin Bender’s excellent RESP strategy.

Along with this portfolio reboot, I’ll also change how we fund the account (annually versus monthly). But I’m afraid I’ve lost track of their total contributions and grants after many years of benign neglect automatic monthly contributions.

I called the Canada Education Savings Program hotline at 1-888-276-3624 and requested a Statement of Account for each child (note, you have to ask for this to be mailed otherwise the agent will just read the numbers to you over the phone).

Once I had the total contributions and grants per child, I calculated each child’s share of the investment returns:

I knew right away there was a problem. Our goal is to contribute $36,000 per child to attract the maximum CESG of $7,200 per child. But if we continue regular monthly contributions of $208.33 per child then our oldest is going to be short. By the end of the year in which she turns 17 we’ll have only contributed $34,125. 

This makes sense because while we opened the RESP right after our oldest child was born, we did not contribute the maximum annual amount. We started with what we could afford, which was $50 per month. That gradually increased to $208.33 per month – but that took a few years.

We’re going to have to catch up on a missing grant by contributing $5,000 in January, 2024. That, plus a regular $2,500 contribution in 2025 and a contribution of $1,875 in 2026 will fully max out the CESG for our oldest child.

Meanwhile, we’re right on track to contribute $36,000 by the time our youngest child is 16. We’ll do annual contributions of $2,500 from 2024 to 2027, and then contribute $1,400 in 2028 (her age 16 year) to fully max out the CESG for our youngest child.

The lesson here for those of you who did not max out your RESP contributions in the first few years is to get that Statement of Account for each child so you know exactly where you stand today, and so you can make a plan to catch up on the unused grants before it’s too late.

According to the Government of Canada website, beneficiaries qualify for a grant on the contributions made on their behalf up to the end of the calendar year in which they turn 17 years of age.

This Week’s Recap:

Earlier this month I wrote about when life insurance is sold, not bought. Still fuming about that one…

A reminder that the Canadian Financial Summit is back for its seventh year with a great line-up of speakers.

This year’s conference takes place from October 18th to 21st. You can grab your free ticket here.

Promo of the Week:

Maybe you’re ready to plan your revenge travel year in 2024, or you’re just looking to switch up a stale credit card rewards program and get into something more lucrative. 

My pro tip is to use Aeroplan for your flights and Marriott Bonvoy for your hotel rewards. The best way to accumulate Aeroplan miles and Bonvoy points is to collect American Express Membership rewards points.

Here’s my card line-up to get you started:

• The American Express Platinum card – Earn up to 100,000 Membership Rewards points.
• The American Express Aeroplan Reserve card – Earn up to Aeroplan points.
• The American Express Cobalt card – Earn up to 30,000 Membership Rewards points and 5x points on food and drink (this is my main every day credit card).
• The Marriott Bonvoy American Express card – Earn up to 55,000 Marriott Bonvoy points and a free night certificate.

And, for small business owners, even more lucrative rewards await:

• The Business Platinum Card from American Express – Earn up to 120,000 Membership Rewards points.
• The Marriott Bonvoy Business American Express card – Earn up 55,000 Marriott Bonvoy points and a free night certificate.

We’ve got an unbelievable trip lined up for next summer in England, France, Switzerland, and Italy. I’ll share more about that in a future post!

Weekend Reading:

The Globe and Mail’s Erica Alini says Canadians can expect to spend $350,000 to raise a child from birth to 17. I believe it.

Michael Lewis is under fire for taking it easy on Sam Bankman-Fried, the subject of his new book. Here’s where Lewis went wrong. 

Why cash ETFs deliver great yields at this moment, but they are no long-term substitutes for classic fixed income funds.

PWL Capital advisors Dan Bortolotti and Justin Bender share a better way to compare bonds and GICs. Excellent analysis.

A must-watch video from Dr. Preet Banerjee on AI and voice cloning technology. Scary stuff!

Many financial advisers only work with wealthy clients. So where are the masses going for help? (hint: contact me).

Mark McGrath with a great explanation of the retirement torpedo – sequence of returns risk.

Jason Heath says these tips can help you avoid financial pain amid the emotions of losing a spouse.

Finally, Rob Carrick asks why is this retiree having so much trouble finding a financial planner to help him draw on his savings tax-efficiently? (subscribers).

Have a great weekend, everyone!